Tuesday, August 28, 2007

Good Post from Jesse....

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=22348782

Posted by: J_Livermore
In reply to: None Date:8/24/2007 3:07:35 PM
Post #of 2838

Hedge Fund Hit Man Hired by Cohen, Loeb, Sender, Says Insurer

By Anthony Effinger
More Photos/Details

Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- One morning in 2005, an unusual letter arrived for Rev. Barry Parker at St. Paul's Anglican church in Toronto. The news: A member of his flock was out to swindle the parish.

``Dear Father,'' the note begins. ``The attached documents are being sent to you out of my concern for the Church's finances.''

The letter goes on to say that the allegedly wayward parishioner, an insurance executive named Prem Watsa, was bilking shareholders of Toronto-based Fairfax Financial Holdings Ltd.

``I am perplexed by the mystifying, spectacular rise of this insurance medusa,'' the typed letter reads. ``Be aware, Father, be skeptical and ask Mr. Watsa to make a full confession.'' The note was signed P. Fate. The return address was that of St. Patrick's Cathedral in New York.

Stranger still is what Fairfax says is the source of the letter: A cabal of hedge fund managers -- among them James Chanos, Steven Cohen, Daniel Loeb, David Rocker and Adam Sender -- hoping to profit from a slump in Fairfax stock. Fairfax, which has a history of accounting lapses, sued eight hedge fund firms for racketeering in July 2006, demanding $6 billion in damages.

The insurer says the letter to Parker, excerpts of which were included in its complaint, was just one of many dirty tricks the fund managers used to smear the company, which has 8,000 employees and $26.8 billion of assets. The hedge funds deny wrongdoing.

MI4

At the heart of this story is a freelance research analyst named Spyro Contogouris, whose previous -- and often contentious -- dealings have ranged from Houston real estate to Nigerian natural gas. Until recently, Contogouris, 46, ran a firm that sounded more cloak-and-dagger than stocks-and-bonds: MI4 Reconnaissance LLC, based in New Orleans.

Fairfax says the hedge fund firms paid Contogouris and MI4 employee Max Bernstein to send out slanderous reports about the insurer and to harass its executives.

Contogouris, like the hedge funds, has said the insurer's allegations are false. The skirmish took a strange turn last November, when Contogouris was arrested on unrelated embezzlement charges. He has pleaded not guilty in that case. Contogouris and the hedge funds say they will argue on Sept. 5 to have the Fairfax complaint dismissed. Contogouris didn't respond to telephone messages left at his New Orleans home.

The Fairfax fight is one of several bitter battles taking place between companies and independent research firms. Internet retailer Overstock.com Inc. has sued Rocker and researcher Gradient Analytics Inc., claiming Rocker paid Gradient and helped analysts there write negative reports on Overstock.com. Drugmaker Biovail Corp. has sued Cohen's SAC Capital Advisors LLC and Gradient, alleging a plot to drive down its shares.

The firms say the allegations are false.

Integrity

The cases raise questions about the integrity of securities research four years after several Wall Street firms settled claims that their analysts issued biased reports to win investment banking business. The 2003 settlement helped boost business for analysts who aren't affiliated with big investment banks.

Now, some unaffiliated analysts are allegedly being corrupted by deep-pocketed hedge funds, which often bet against stocks. In its complaint, filed in the New Jersey Superior Court in Morris County, Fairfax alleges hedge funds hired Contogouris to beat up its shares.

``The complaint tells a story of people playing by a whole different set of rules,'' says Michael Bowe, a lawyer at New York-based Kasowitz, Benson, Torres & Friedman LLP, which represents Fairfax.

The hedge fund firms say Fairfax sued to quiet critics.

Tempting Target

``This case involves a spurious attempt by Fairfax, a publicly traded Canadian company, to use New Jersey's anti- racketeering statute to silence all stock market analysts critical of Fairfax and to deter investors from 'shorting' its stock,'' wrote lawyers for Sender in a memorandum supporting the motion to dismiss.

Fairfax has been a tempting target for short sellers. The company headed by Watsa, a former door-to-door air conditioner salesman who built his property-casualty insurer through acquisitions, has been plagued by erratic earnings and accounting errors. In June 2005, Fairfax disclosed that the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission had requested information on Fairfax's use of reinsurance products. The company said the investigation was ongoing as of early August.

Contogouris says in court documents that he did work for six different hedge fund firms. In a sworn affidavit in an unrelated civil complaint against him, he names several firms that Fairfax later sued, including Exis Capital Management Inc., which is run by Sender.

Denial

Exis did indeed buy research from MI4 and shorted Fairfax stock in 2005, based in part on Contogouris's analysis, according to Sender's lawyer, David Zensky, of Akin Gump Strauss Hauer & Feld LLP in New York. ``Exis vigorously denies the charges of wrongdoing in the complaint,'' Zensky says.

In a flurry of reports issued in 2005 and 2006, MI4 said Fairfax used a web of European subsidiaries to conceal a cash crunch. Contogouris likened the insurer to Enron and postulated that a ``Friends of Fairfax'' club made up of analysts and investors conspired to drive up its stock.

``What draws them to each other, and indeed binds them together, is a feeling of belonging to a 'Group Think,''' Contogouris wrote in a report dated June 23, 2006. ``It's herd behavior, it's Orwellian in its management and, in the case of Fairfax and the members of the FoF Club, it's true.''

Arrested

Among the club members, according to Contogouris: Mason Hawkins, chief executive officer of Memphis, Tennessee-based Southeastern Asset Management Inc. Southeastern is Fairfax's largest shareholder, with 21.5 percent of the stock as of June. Lee Harper, a spokeswoman for Southeastern, didn't return telephone calls seeking comment.

Contogouris's war with Fairfax took an odd turn on Nov. 13, 2006, when he was arrested on federal charges of embezzling money from an unnamed former employer. News of the arrest sent Fairfax soaring 10 percent in a day. Contogouris pleaded not guilty to a four-count indictment filed in Manhattan federal court in New York. His lawyer, James Felix, declined to comment.

Most critics of Fairfax have gone quiet since the company filed its racketeering complaint. In all, Fairfax sued eight hedge fund companies: Red Bank, New Jersey-based Copper River Management LLC, the successor to Rocker Partners LP that was formerly run by Rocker; Sender's Exis; Chanos's Kynikos Associates Ltd.; and Loeb's Third Point LLC, all based in New York. Two others are in Greenwich, Connecticut: Lone Pine Capital LLC and SAC Capital. Another, Trinity Capital of Jacksonville Inc., is based in Jacksonville, Florida. The last, Sigma Capital Management LLC, is a New York-based division of SAC.

Big Names

Several of the managers are named personally, including Chanos, Cohen, Loeb, Rocker and Sender. In addition, Fairfax sued Morgan Keegan & Co. analyst John Gwynn; Christopher Brett Lawless, a former analyst at Fitch Group Inc. in New York; Bernstein; and Contogouris. Fairfax says Gwynn and Lawless conspired with the hedge fund firms.

Most of the defendants remain mum. Copper River, Kynikos, Lone Pine and SAC declined to comment. Third Point and Trinity didn't return calls. Messages left at a New Jersey listing for Lawless weren't returned.

To beat the hedge funds, Fairfax has enlisted public relations maestro Michael Sitrick and uberlitigator Marc Kasowitz, whose New York-based law firm Kasowitz, Benson, Torres & Friedman has battled class action asbestos claims and helped cigarette maker Liggett Group Inc. avoid penalties imposed on Big Tobacco.

Lone Voice

Only one Fairfax detractor is still talking: William Gahan, a trader at Institutional Credit Partners LLC, a New York-based fixed-income manager. Gahan, 41, correctly predicted the 2003 collapse of scandal-plagued Italian dairy company Parmalat Finanziaria SpA. Now, he says he has accountants and tax lawyers delving into Fairfax.

Gahan says Fairfax used transactions with a Cayman Islands- based subsidiary of Bank of America Corp. to dodge U.S. taxes. Fairfax says the deals were proper.

After Gahan began asking questions about Fairfax, the insurer included him and his firm in its racketeering suit. ``Anyone who questions the company gets sued,'' he says.

Gahan fueled Fairfax's allegations of a conspiracy in November when he and Bernstein posted a $200,000 bond to guarantee that Contogouris would appear in court on the separate embezzlement charges. Gahan says he did it because he thinks Contogouris is innocent. He says he's skeptical about all the dirty deeds that Fairfax alleges, too.

``You can put anything in a lawsuit,'' Gahan says.

Free Speech

Lawyers for Contogouris and Bernstein say their clients are protected by the First Amendment to the U.S. Constitution, which guarantees the right to free speech. On those grounds, they say, the complaint should be dismissed.

``Without the application of those protections at this phase of the litigation, the MI4 defendants will be permanently harmed, and their First Amendment rights, and indeed their livelihoods, will be permanently impaired,'' attorney Stephen Rosenberg says in court papers.

It's been a wild ride for Contogouris, a controversial character who took up stock research after working in real estate and on energy investments. No one involved in the Fairfax case seems to know much about what Contogouris did before 1993. After that point, some of his business dealings are detailed in court documents.

For a time, he lived large in Hollywood. In 2000, he bought a house just above Sunset Boulevard, according to property records. He and his brother Chris, an executive producer on Eminem's ``8 Mile'' soundtrack, bought a Los Angeles music club called the Mint.

Paris Hilton

Chris lunched with Paris Hilton and sang at the club with Guns N' Roses frontman Axl Rose. Spyro rubbed elbows with Renée Zellweger and Lionel Richie as a board member of the Bony Pony Ranch, a camp for low-income kids near Los Angeles.

Contogouris made his first big mark in real estate in 1993, when a Greek shipping magnate named Dimitri Manios hired him to renovate a 1906 brownstone in Manhattan.

Manios died suddenly, and his brother, Vassilios, later asked Contogouris to refurbish and sell two buildings in Houston, according to a civil fraud complaint that Vassilios Manios filed in April 2005 against Contogouris in Harris County, Texas. As of mid-August, that case hadn't been resolved.

Then the trouble started. According to Manios's complaint, Contogouris withheld more than half of the $39.5 million he got for the Houston properties. Manios fired him in April 2002. In his complaint, Manios says he belatedly discovered that Contogouris had been siphoning money for years through a network of more than 130 bank accounts.

Match for Manios

The criminal embezzlement complaint against Contogouris doesn't name a victim, but the details match Manios's civil action against Contogouris, down to the numbers on checks that Contogouris allegedly used to steal money.

Even before Manios fired him, Contogouris was prowling for a new moneymaker, this time in energy. In 2000, he agreed to invest $3.75 million in a partnership established by Houston-based Hanover Compressor Co. to build a natural gas compression plant on barges in Nigeria.

The Hanover project turned out to be a fiasco. Hanover investors later filed a class action suit against the Houston company, alleging that the deal was a ploy to artificially inflate Hanover's sales.

The deal appears to have been a good one for Contogouris. The complaint, filed by Pirelli Armstrong Tire Corp. Retiree Medical Benefits Trust, says Hanover guaranteed a refund of Contogouris's investment and paid him a $1 million commission for entering into the contract.

`Honest Person'

The Pirelli complaint doesn't allege any wrongdoing by Contogouris. Mark Roberts, president of Cambridge, Massachusetts- based independent research firm Off Wall Street Consulting Group Inc., says Contogouris was an unwitting accomplice in the scheme.

Roberts says he had been digging into Hanover's accounting and had recommended shorting the stock. Then Contogouris came to him with information, Roberts says.

Hanover settled the class action suit in 2003, without admitting or denying wrongdoing.

``Spyro is a very honest person,'' Roberts says. ``I could be wrong, but I don't think I am.''

Working on the Hanover project, Contogouris met fund managers who'd wagered against it, Roberts says. Contogouris liked the work and had a list of potential clients. He decided to become a stock analyst, Roberts says. MI4 was born.

Art Collector

Contogouris met Sender through a friend of a friend or a relative, Sender's lawyer Zensky says. Sender, 38, left SAC in 1998 to establish Exis. Like his mentor Cohen, Sender is a collector of contemporary art. In a March interview with Bloomberg News, Sender valued his private collection at $100 million.

Morgan Keegan's Gwynn says he met Contogouris at Sender's office. ``As far as I know, he was an employee of Exis,'' Gwynn said in a telephone interview. Morgan Keegan is a unit of Birmingham, Alabama-based Regions Financial Corp.

``He was never an employee of Exis,'' Zensky says of Contogouris. ``Like others, we bought research from him. He had a very impressive work ethic and lots of good ideas and insight concerning a variety of companies.''

Sender lost his 2005 bet against Fairfax. The shares rose, forcing him to cover his losses by buying more expensive stock.

`Fair, Friendly'

Before its battle with short sellers, Fairfax was a press- shy insurance company. Watsa, the founder, was born in Hyderabad, India. He graduated in 1972 from the Indian Institutes of Technology with a degree in chemical engineering and moved to Canada. He sold air conditioners to put himself through the University of Western Ontario, earning an MBA in 1974.

He did a stint as an investment analyst at an insurer, then established his own money management firm, Hamblin Watsa Investment Counsel, in 1984. A year later, he bought his first insurance company, Markel Financial Holdings, a struggling trucking insurer. He renamed it Fairfax, short for ``fair, friendly acquisitions.''

Fairfax thrived until the late 1990s, when it bought two U.S. insurers: Crum & Forster Holdings Inc., for $565 million, and TIG Holdings Inc., for $847 million. Both got swamped by unexpected liabilities, including claims tied to the terrorist attacks of Sept. 11, 2001.

The 9/11 attacks cost Fairfax $85 million after taxes and contributed to a loss of $298 million for the three months ended on Sept. 30, 2001 -- 20 times the loss from a year earlier, according to company financial statements. Watsa shut most of TIG in December 2002. With more of its operations now in the U.S., Fairfax listed shares on the New York Stock Exchange in the same month.

`Fairfax Project'

The bears pounced, selling 2 million shares short by January 2003. The ``Fairfax Project'' -- a name the band of hedge funds used, according to the company -- had begun.

Fairfax says the hedge fund firms worked with analysts to hammer the stock. One of the first analysts to take aim was Gwynn at Morgan Keegan, who issued a report on Jan. 16, 2003, saying Fairfax was short $5 billion of reserves needed to cover future claims. Fairfax shares listed in Toronto tumbled 28 percent during the next four days, to 85 Canadian dollars, a seven-year low. The U.S. shares followed suit.

Two weeks later, on Jan. 30, Gwynn backpedaled and issued a new report that put the shortfall at $3 billion. Fairfax shares in Toronto rebounded 9.7 percent.

Contogouris started following Fairfax in early to mid-2005. He lays out his side of the story in a complaint he filed against various Fairfax executives and subsidiaries in U.S. District Court in Louisiana in November 2006.

Luxembourg

Contogouris zeroed in on Fairfax's European subsidiaries. He said Watsa was using them to inflate assets. In a report dated Nov. 13, 2005, he said Watsa had shuffled money from a unit in Hungary to another in Gibraltar and then to a third in Luxembourg so Fairfax could count the money twice and use it to get loans. He later pegged the amount at $1 billion.

Bowe says that's nonsense. ``As detailed in Fairfax's lawsuit, the alleged undisclosed off-balance-sheet entities and alleged undisclosed pledge agreements upon which Contogouris's claims are based never existed,'' he says.

Fairfax, in its complaint, says the hedge funds' dirty tricks started in late 2005, with the November letter to St. Paul's, where Watsa served as chairman of the investment committee.

In that letter, the writer identified only as P. Fate tells Parker that Watsa bears a striking physical resemblance to Martin Frankel, who in 2004 was sentenced to 17 years in prison for stealing more than $200 million from U.S. insurers. Fate goes on to tell Parker that Frankel also stole a fortune from the Catholic Church.

`Paper Shuffle'

``While these coincidences are surprising, they do not compare to the similarities between the massive money-laundering schemes perpetrated by Marty Frankel and the massively convoluted paper shuffle created by Mr. Watsa,'' Fate says.

Attached was a 26-page article detailing Frankel's fraud, his flight from U.S. authorities and his supposed interest in sadomasochistic orgies. Parker didn't return calls seeking comment.

Watsa got the same package via e-mail, Fairfax says in its complaint. Computer code at the bottom of the document shows P. Fate is in fact Bernstein, Fairfax says in its complaint.

The same day Watsa got the e-mail, someone phoned Fairfax and left a message. ``Tell Watsa that when he goes to jail next year we will visit him and bring him some treats,'' the caller said, according to Fairfax. The originating phone number was listed to Exis, the insurer says.

The harassment was relentless, says Paul Rivett, Fairfax's chief legal officer. For months, he says he had to turn off his home phone periodically because of crank calls in which people read excerpts from J.K. Rowling's Harry Potter books or claimed to be drug dealers looking for money.

Attack Intensifies

``It felt as if they were trying to wage a psychological warfare campaign,'' Rivett says.

Fed up, Rivett says he convinced Watsa to hire a law firm to investigate. Kasowitz Benson's Bowe had useful experience. In February, his firm had sued SAC Capital and several other hedge fund firms and analysts, alleging a plot to drive down shares of Biovail. Like Fairfax, Biovail was under investigation by the SEC.

The attack on Fairfax intensified. In May 2006, Contogouris arrived at the London offices of a Fairfax unit, according to the insurer. He got past the building's security personnel by saying he was a reporter, the complaint says.

Inside, he tried to get executives to talk by saying that Watsa had sold the subsidiary. ``Special Situations Research Consultant, MI4 Reconnaissance,'' read the card he later left behind. The phone number on the card rang through to Exis, Fairfax says.

Complaint Filed

Short interest in Fairfax's U.S. shares surged to 4.2 million shares in July 2006 from 3.3 million that June. On July 26, seven months after the letter arrived for Parker, Fairfax sued the hedge fund firms, Bernstein, Contogouris and the others, alleging a vast conspiracy.

Then came a twist: Two days later, Fairfax said it would restate earnings to correct five years of errors. That August, Fairfax quantified the restatement, lopping off $235.3 million of shareholders' equity. The hedge funds say in court documents that Fairfax sued to blunt criticism of its accounting. Bowe calls that claim ``silly.''

After Fairfax filed its suit, many Fairfax critics shut up. At Morgan Keegan, Gwynn stopped covering the company in January. Only Gahan is pounding the table now. He says a friend -- not one of the people named in Fairfax's complaint -- suggested in 2006 that he look into Fairfax.

Mining Filings

Gahan talked to Contogouris, dug through Fairfax's earnings restatements and at one point blanketed the 25-foot (7.6-meter) length of a conference table at his firm with SEC filings.

After more than a year of forensic accounting, Gahan says Contogouris was right: Something was rotten at Fairfax. Gahan says Fairfax improperly lowered its U.S. tax bill in 2003 when it consolidated a reinsurance unit called Odyssey Re Holdings Corp. into its U.S. tax group. Sitrick, Fairfax's spokesman, says that claim is false.

In early 2003, Fairfax owned 74 percent of Odyssey. Owning more than 80 percent would give Fairfax the right to consolidate Odyssey for tax purposes. Fairfax had net operating losses that would cancel out Odyssey's profit, letting Fairfax keep $140 million that Odyssey would have otherwise sent to the U.S. Internal Revenue Service for 2003, Gahan says.

Cayman Islands

Instead of using precious cash, Fairfax got 4.3 million Odyssey shares -- enough to get more than 80 percent -- by handing over $78 million of notes to a unit of Bank of America called NMS Services (Cayman) Inc., based in the Cayman Islands. NMS, in turn, went out and borrowed Odyssey shares from investors and transferred them to Fairfax. NMS kept the right to get the shares back 21 months later.

Fairfax said it made the purchase for tax reasons and as an investment. Deals done solely for tax reasons rankle the IRS, and it has disallowed transactions when companies can't prove another purpose. Gahan says Fairfax couldn't make any money because of the way its deal was structured, which meant there was no investment purpose.

For example, in 2006 Fairfax gave Bank of America $23.5 million in cash to cancel notes it had used to pay for 1 million shares of Odyssey, Gahan says. That meant Bank of America gave up rights to them and needed to buy 1 million shares to return to investors, he says. Fairfax agreed to pay Bank of America for the cost, Gahan says, based on his reading of Odyssey SEC filings.

The reimbursement slashed any profit Fairfax would have made from owning the shares for three years, Gahan says.

``Fairfax never had a real investment in the stock,'' says Bryan Skarlatos, a tax attorney at Kostelanetz & Fink LLP in New York who Gahan hired to examine the transaction.

Precise Compliance

Fairfax says Gahan and Skarlatos are wrong.

``The statement that Odyssey was not properly consolidated with Fairfax in 2003 is simply untrue,'' Sitrick, the outside spokesman, said in a statement. ``The 2003 transaction being discussed, and the resulting tax consolidation, complied precisely with the IRS regulation and all relevant laws governing consolidation. The individuals raising these issues are defendants in Fairfax's racketeering litigation who still hold an economic interest in a decline of Fairfax stock and have admitted their association with co-defendant Contogouris. Their theories about consolidation ignore the actual terms of the governing tax provisions, contradict the relevant tax authorities and are otherwise based on false factual premises that simply do not exist.''

Bank of America spokesman Brandon Ashcraft declined to comment on the matter, citing client confidentiality.

`On the Books'

Robert Willens, a managing director and tax-accounting analyst at Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., says Gahan's best shot is that the IRS examines the transaction to see if it had any purpose other than tax avoidance. The IRS hasn't scrutinized a case like this in a long time, but there's a chance it could, he says. ``These cases are on the books,'' Willens says.

Gahan has put money on being right. ICP has bought credit derivatives that will rise in value if, as Gahan predicts, publicly traded Odyssey Re gets hit with a big tax bill, weakening its financial condition. His boss, ICP founder Thomas Priore, says the fight is about more than money.

``When they sued us, it became personal,'' Priore says.

As for Contogouris, his days as an analyst are over, for now. MI4 has stopped doing research, for fear of getting sued again, his lawyers said in court documents.

As of mid-August, his separate trial on embezzlement charges had yet to be scheduled. None of his former clients would step forward to help when he was arrested, either.

``No one would take his call,'' Gahan says. It seems Contogouris, one-time head of MI4, has been disavowed by the hedge fund firms that now stand accused of paying him to do their dirty work.

Wednesday, August 15, 2007

Rough Waters Ahead?

jim kunstler-8/13/07

Margin Call August 13, 2007

The seas were a mite choppy off Hedge Fund Island last week after all when the Federal Reserve started tossing life preservers of ready cash to the Big Fund Boyz bobbing and thrashing in the swells. Now, about that "money" -- which is, in essence, a bunch of extended lines of credit at the Fed's artificially- low official interest rate -- what actually happens to it? The simple answer is: it disappears into the same ocean of financial woe that the Boyz are drowning in.

The mere $38 billion that the Fed tossed out Friday afternoon, as the Dow was tanking down a few hundred clicks, will be used by banks and investment houses to cover losses in the synthetic securities they themselves created, and have been trading, during this psychotic final blow off of cheap energy capitalism. In essence, the Fed is buying worthless paper. The trouble is, there is so much more worthless paper out there that all the computers at the Federal Reserve could never generate enough pixelated cash to cover them in the life of this universe or several like it.

An additional problem: there is a practically inexhaustible supply of "dead" mortgages and corporate loans washing up on the pebbled beaches of Hedge Fund Island. No matter how bad the mortgage-and- credit-derived racket looks now, it is certain to only get worse as the dead mortgages and loans fester in the sun and the tropical foliage on Hedge Fund Island starts to wilt from the toxic fumes of all that decaying matter. This summer is only the beginning of a cycle of adjustable mortgage interest rate re-sets. The numbers go way up in the fall and are scheduled to continue rising well into the winter of 2008. How long do you think the Big Fund Boys can tread water?

What you're seeing now is a simple matter of financial sector players trying desperately to evade the consequences of their own actions. The fake wealth generated by the synthetic securities they created is now being recognized for what it is: a swindle. The hallucination is over. The collective denial that supported that hallucination is dissolving. The losses are become manifest. Even worse, the losses are growing exponentially because the synthetic securities were used as collateral to leverage far greater multiples of "positions," bets, and plays in a casino-like global electronic trading arena.

This is what happens when investment gets de-coupled from real productive activity and becomes an end in itself. It has been terrifically enhanced by computer programming. But no amount of digital legerdemain --with the "sugar-on-top" of accounting trickery -- can now hide the fact that there is no "value" there. What's more, the losses are going to have to show up somewhere. If you try to suppress them in one area, they'll pop up in another. If the Federal Reserve tries to cover the losses racked up by the Big Fund Boyz by giving "cash" away, they'll only succeed in destroying the value of the cash itself, i.e. the US dollar.

Now, few reasonable people can really imagine that the Fed would blunder into hyper-inflation. But the situation is so desperate that the Fed's mission to do what's necessary to rescue drowning banks may over-ride the prudent deployment of cash life preservers. As that occurs, foreign holders of the US Dollar may detect the impending loss of value of the dollar, and there would be a stampede to the redemption windows to get rid of them. That would leave the Federal Reserve (and by extension the American Nation) in a position of stark and implacable insolvency.

In any case, the US now stands on the brink of an unprecedented liquidation of assets. The mortgaged title holders to over-priced McHouses will have to liquidate their positions as "home-owners. " The over-leveraged holders of credit-card debt will have to sell their Ford Explorers, bass boats, sports memorabilia (good luck with that shit) and flat-screen TVs. The retired dentists will have to dump their stocks and bonds. The corporations will have to sell off subsidiary operations, buildings, and corporate jets. Some colleges will just shutter. The Big Fund Boys will have nothing of value left in their portfolios to sell. They will just drown. Their heirs and assigns will then have to dispose of the house in Sagaponak, the 10-room apartment on Central Park West, and the family fleet of SUVs. The Big Boyz will take quite a few institutions with them -- the club-like banks and investment "houses" that employed them and went along with their mendacious shenanigans.

The upshot is that we are going to find ourselves a poorer nation. There will be far fewer people with money. There will be far fewer buyers of repossessed McHouses, bass boats, etc. Even the houses in Sagaponak and the Manhattan apartments will go cheap. The effort to pretend our way out of a financial crisis will fail. Sooner or later the recognition will set in that all that "boo-yah" was dreamed up. The United States swindled itself. We became a nation of such greed-crazed clowns that we committed financial suicide in an orgy of self-deception.

Anyway, that's how I see it this morning. The equity markets open in a half hour or so. The mood out there must be dark. The hands that hold the Starbucks cups must be trembling at the trading desks. I hasten to add that I think the turmoil and destruction can go on for quite a while. This slow-motion train wreck is not going to play out in just a week or two. And in case anyone forgets, in the background looms another storm at least as potent as the one now blowing through the financial markets: the gathering permanent global energy crisis (a.k.a. "peak oil"). Just because some Big Fund Boyz liquidated their positions on the oil futures market last week to try to cover their losses elsewhere does not mean that price of oil is going to keep going down. It may rest on the ledge in the $60 -$70 range for a spell, but you can be sure it will take flight again. And if it does as the dollar is crashing for other reasons, this will become a pretty disorderly nation in a very
dangerous and unforgiving world.

Life can change in just half a day, as fast as water runs down the drain.
from "Life on A String"
Eleventh Dream Day, 1988

Tuesday, August 14, 2007

Long Overdue...

http://a257.g.akamaitech.net/7/257/2422/01jan20071800/edocket.access.gpo.gov/2007/E7-15708.htm

As always the real question is whether or not this will be enforced.

If history is any indicator do not hold your breath.

Thursday, August 09, 2007

Pinkie Dictionary

From the I*Hub JMCP Board:

Posted by: alien_scones
In reply to: None Date:8/9/2007 8:20:38 AM
Post #of 12852

Pinkie dictionary

as posted by Jagman:

AF's - Audited Financials; documents so rare, so precious, that mere mention of their future appearance can cause spectacular price appreciation (See also: Next Week).

Available Funds - a number inversely proportional to the investment merits of the stock you are considering for purchase.

Average Down - what to do when your stock has dropped far below your Mental Stop.

Basher - the ultimate compliment; a person of considerable wealth, wit and skepticism. Will never critique a bad stock, only good ones. (See also: Paid Basher)

Big News - the cause of much anticipation among Stuckholders; if and when released, causes massive Naked Shorting, which is the only way the Market Makers can prevent the price from rising (to the Moon).

Boca Raton - an island of integrity and sound financial advice in the Florida swamps.

Boiler Room - an old documentary about the lost art of reeling in a Sucker by telephone.

Cellar Boxing - a game played by Market Makers when they get bored with pulling the wings off flies.

Cert - an official-looking document that proves you lost money.

Cert Pull - a reliable way to insure that Stuckholders remain so.

Credit Card - an excellent source of funds for non-marginable Emerging Growth Stocks

DD - the process by which you convince yourself to buy a bad stock (courtesy of "serfdom").

Economic Darwinism - the process by which Pink Sheet Stuckholders are relieved of their money and removed from the financial ecosystem, thus insuring that they will never become wealthy enough to cause real damage.

Emerging Growth Company - an implausible story about a hypothetical business.

Emerging Growth Stock - a scam.

Ex-clearing - the red button on the trading terminals of all Hedge Funds that allows a trader to manipulate a single stock, or the entire market, yet avoid detection by any compliance, audit, regulatory or taxation authority.

God Bless (when used at the end of a letter to shareholders, subscribers, etc.) - proof that the author is sincere about wanting to take your money, reluctant to serve a prison sentence, or both.

Greenwich, CT - Hedge Fund capital of the world, home to many Naked Short Sellers; the only portal into Hades with regular train service from mid-town Manhattan.

Gullibler - see Sucker

Gut Feeling - (before you buy an Emerging Growth Stock): a hunch that this will finally be the multi-bagger you have been searching for; (after you buy an Emerging Growth Stock): the urge to vomit.

Hedge Fund - any group of two or more people with more money and brains than you.

Investor Relations - a liar who is unable to hold down a steady job.

JV - an arrangement between the promoters of two or more Emerging Growth Stocks, with the sole intention of inducing Suckers to buy, and shorts to cover; a meaningless document.

Janet Shell - part cyber-sleuth, part vampire, she clones rats in a secret underground lair and can destroy an Emerging Growth Stock by simply moving her fingers. Sued by the SEC, Amazon and Business Week, she fled her Texas trailer park and is now living in exile in the former Soviet republic of Italy.

Letter of Intent - a letter sent by one party to a second party, usually made public with the sole intention of inducing many third parties to purchase an Emerging Growth Stock. (See also: MOU, JV, Big News, Next Week)

Level II - an electronic stream of data that will enable you to lose more money, faster than ever before.

Locked and Loaded - "I have doubled down more than once on this pig, and if it doesn't go back up very soon, I am in deep, deep trouble…"

Long and Strong - "My irrational belief in this dishonest promotion will not be shaken by assertions of fact."

MM - Market Maker; the Ferrari-driving 24 year-old who emptied your account, one trade at a time.

MOASS - the Mother of All Short Squeezes; when predicted as imminent, a guarantee that your stock will drift lower for the rest of time.

MOU - a letter sent by one liar to another.

Margin - a quicker way to send your entire portfolio to Money Heaven.

Margin Call - the market's way of telling you to stop trading and buy no-load mutual funds.

Melchizidek - a business-friendly domicile for Emerging Growth Companies (see also: Utah)

Mental Stop - an arbitrary point below your purchase price, and always adjusted down to be below the current quote. (See also: Stop Loss)

Mine - a hole in the ground with a liar at the top (Mark Twain).

Mining Company - a group of liars.

Mining Company (Exploration Stage) - a group of liars who have not yet agreed what to lie about.

Mining Company Stock - expensive toilet paper.

Money Heaven: the final resting place for the capital of retail Spec-o-lators. (See also Greenwich, CT.)

Money TV - a platform for fraudulent stock promotion, hosted by paid shill and convicted goat-f'r, Donald Baillargeon.

Moon - frequently-promised price-point for Emerging Growth Stocks; a mineral-rich celestial body, ripe for exploration by Mining Companies.

NSS (Naked Short Selling) - a helpful service provided by Market Makers to lower the price of your stock, so you can buy more at bargain levels (in time for the MOASS).

Next Week - the time frame for the release of the Big News. Always Next Week, never This Week.

NITE - Knight Trading, the largest Market Maker of Emerging Growth Stocks, and the party responsible for your lack of investment acumen and poor trading skills.

OS - Outstanding Shares, like the National Debt, a large and ever-increasing number, but with more immediate negative effect on Stuckholders' wealth.

Optomistic - this mis-spelling of the word optimistic reliably indicates the victim has not yet realized the extent of his losses, or the depths to which the company's management or IR person will go to deceive him.

Paid Basher - one already rich from not wasting their capital on Emerging Growth Stocks, and able to pull down many additional billions by criticizing YOUR stock.

Penny Stock - a business so unprofitable, so mis-managed, so dishonest, that no bank or VC would lend them a cent (see also: Emerging Growth Stock, Mining Company).

Penny Stockholm Syndrome - the love that dare not show a spouse the brokerage statement (see also: True Long).

Pink Sheets - an electronic stock exhange whose secret objective is the transfer of wealth from Suckers to Hedge Funds and executives of Emerging Growth Companies.

Positive DD - what the CEO/promoter/IR person tells you on the phone (but is unable to put in writing); frequently involves Big News, which may arrive as early as Next Week.

Press Release - (when issued by a Real Company) an announcement of material interest to the financial community, intended to goose the stock price; (when issued by an Emerging Growth Company) a collection of exaggerations, lies and errors of omission, intended to goose the stock price.

Reverse Split - the market's way of letting you know your stock is a loser.

SEC - huge, lavishly-funded regulatory agency, whose secret objective is the transfer of wealth from Suckers to Hedge Funds.

Short - the natural enemy of the Sucker;

Short, Naked - see NSS

Spec-o-late - to throw one's capital down the Stinky Pinky Toilet; to engage in wild financial fantasies that will never be realized.

Steve Cohen - (pronounced: Cth'ul'hu) Hedge Fund manager and notorious Short; very camera-shy, due to the fact that he has actual horns growing from his head.

Stinky Pinky - see Emerging Growth Stock

Stinky Pinky Toilet: the place your money goes. (See also: Money Heaven)

Stop Loss - an invitation to a Market Maker to take your money.

Stuckholder - holder of a position in a Stinky Pinky where the proceeds from selling would be less than the commission.

Sucker - anyone long a Penny Stock for longer than it takes to go to the bathroom.

Things that make you go HMMMMMM - prelude or finale to a message-board post consisting of well-researched links that clearly prove the price weakness in a particular Stinky Pinky is due to a vast conspiracy by a secret alliance of Hedge Funds, Market Makers, central banks, the supreme court, Raging Bull, Paid Bashers, the Vatican, the SEC and DTCC, the House of Saud, George Soros, the Smoking Man, etc.

Time Travel - a technology found only in the business plans of Emerging Growth Companies.

Trailing Stop - a trading technique designed to protect profits, seldom needed by investors in Emerging Growth Stocks.

True Long - the con man's best friend.

Utah - a business-friendly domicile for Emerging Growth Stocks.

Vancouver - a street in Canada where your broker worked before he moved to Boca Raton

Wall St - a really old movie with Michael Douglas that portrays the softer, more sentimental side of finance (see also: Boiler Room).

Zero Bid - the market's way of letting you know your stock is a loser.

Thursday, August 02, 2007

Make Your Own Las Vegas Sign

http://atom.smasher.org/vegas/?p=1&l1=blastoff&l2=countdown+to+.01&l3=10%2C9%2C8%2C7%2C6%2C5%2C4%2C3%2C2%2C&l4=Summus+Works

Saturday, July 14, 2007

Classic Basher Post

Check this one out...

Elf is pure crap but you have to love the classics:

http://investorshub.advfn.com/boards/read_msg.asp?message_id=21240098

"
I've managed to make money trading this stock, mostly by staying out of it. Anybody else who has a profit here, maybe you've got something to say that I'll be interested in. I trade to make money. I don't buy and hold bad stocks. Anybody who bought this on a hunch and is sitting around watching his money fade away, well, good luck. But I don't think I'm going to learn anything useful from you, because I trade to MAKE money, not to lose it.And this board is supposed to be about the stock, not about the people posting on it. If you have something to say about the stock, fire it up. Otherwise, please keep your "hunches" and opinions about other posters to yourselves."

Pure crap but good in the P. T. Barnum sense.....

Friday, July 06, 2007

Risk

http://www.nasdaq.com/services/riskMetrics.stm

Courtesy of retiredcoach @ I*Hub.....

Big Government at Work....

The SEC- "Always looking out for the little guy"

" On June 13, 2007, the Commission voted to remove the tick test of Rule10a-1 and to amend Regulation SHO to provide that no short sale pricetest, including any price test of any exchange or national securitiesassociation, shall apply to short sales in any security. TheCommission has established a compliance date of July 6, 2007 for the changes. Publication of the amendments is expected to be made in theFederal Register during the week of July 2, 2007. (Rel. 34-55970)"

http://www.sec.gov/news/digest/2007/dig062807.txt

This will not end well....